Hatoyama: move Futenma to Guam?

Despite heavy U.S. pressure, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama appears to have given up on resolving the controversial relocation of a U.S. Marine base in Okinawa before year's end and is now floating Guam as an option.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20091205a2.html

Comment: Moving this portion of the Marine Air Wing to Guam, though in my opinion as a long term future solution, is ultimately the right move. However, in the short term, this would essentially mean moving all of the Marines currently in Okinawa to Guam and the Northern Marianas too. The Marine Corps mission means having helicopters near the troops. Guam is 2000 Km away and thus out of range for continuing training as well as, should the worst possible scenario take place, providing air support in actual combat.

This would mean the closure of many U.S. bases on Okinawa which, in the immediate, would please only the anti-U.S. fanatics. However, in their myopic shortsightedness, they do not see the harm this will cause the Okinawan people economically. In short, though idyllic, it will do far more harm than good for the people of Okinawa!

If the Marine bases on Okinawa were to suddenly close, thousands of Okinawan’s would lose their livelihoods. In addition to the rent monies that land owners receive, thousands of local people depend on the bases for their jobs. Secondarily to this are all of the local businesses whose main source of income is the U.S. service personnel and their families. Not only would many lose their jobs, many would be forced into bankruptcy. This is a recipe for disaster.

Okada visits; presses for Kadena-Futenma solution

Japan Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada spent two days visiting Okinawa, studying plans for building a new Marine airfield to replace the controversial Futenma Marine Corps Air Station in downtown Ginowan City.

http://www.japanupdate.com/?id=9931

One has to remember that Mr. Okada was once the former head of the DPJ until his party lost in a landside to former Prime Minister Koizumi’s Liberal Demagogue-Rat Party (LDP) a few years back. Back then, some attributed the landslide loss to Mr. Okada’s tunnel vision, a trait that he seems to still posses to this day.

Mr. Okada’s plan is a band-aid solution that the locals rightly see as giving them short shrift on the deal, something they’re used to getting from the former ruling party, the (LDP). As such, it’s likely that such a move could result in big wins for opposition parties in the next go round of elections. Unfortunately for all concerned, that could end up being the communists.

The general Okinawan position on the issue is sort of an, “oh well, it’s been real, it’s even been fun at times, and except for a handful of nimrods, we really don’t hate you but, it’s come time for all you American’s to pack up their toys and go home.” When it comes to the situation on Okinawa, one can liken the Americans to the bad party guest who’s normally fun to be around when they’re sober but, unfortunately gets too drunk and then refuses to leave even after everyone else has left and gone home. That’s sort of what Okinawan’s are like when they party which may in a small way explain why they’ve tolerated the American military presence here for as long as they have.

The hard line Okinawan position, represented by a growing minority of Okinawans, a majority if you are foolish enough to believe what you see and hear from the mainstream media, is for ALL of the AMERICANS here TO pack up their toys and LEAVE no later than YESTERDAY! This is just as, if not more, unrealistic as Mr. Okada’s plan. Similarly, the American plan of keeping so many bases in Okinawa in perpetuity is likewise unrealistic, maybe even immoral!

With all of the sides dug in deep and digging themselves in deeper, a much needed compromise is becoming more in doubt. For that to happen, all of the sides will have to give up something if we are to reach an agreement that is equitable. The U.S. must consider a more serious drawdown of forces, as well as a more significant consolidation of the bases in Okinawa. But this is a long term project that will take decades to accomplish. That is where the Okinawan’s must be willing to compromise.

Lastly, If America does agree, Japan as a sovereign nation must step up its own self defense. They already have a capable Navy and more must be done by Tokyo to wean them off of reliance on the U.S. for this all important national responsibility. That does not mean that the alliance will go away, nor does it mean that all of the bases on Okinawa will go away. Quite simply it means that Tokyo will have to do a better job of taking care of its own and stop playing both sides (Americans vs. Okinawans) against each other while they try to remain unscathed and above the fray. That position didn’t help the LDP in the last election and it won’t help the DPJ keep the helm either.

As far as filling in the bay to build the runways at Camp Schwab, in my opinion, that’s not such a good idea. In the interim, the handful of fixed wing assets still left at Futenma (A few C130 refueling tankers) could be moved to Kadena but, a sizeable heliport on the peninsula at Camp Schwab large enough to facilitate all of the rotary assets would allow for the Marines to continue their mission.

What is needed here is a long term plan for Japan to step up to its responsibilities to its people and as that happens, a withdrawal of most American forces to its own territories in Hawaii, Guam and the Mariana’s leaving only a small footprint in Japan. To make that happen, the political rhetoric has to tone down and the warring factions need to listen to, instead of shouting past each other.

Hatoyama, key ministers split on Futenma

Japan’s defense and foreign ministers seemingly are in agreement that Futenma Marine Corps Air Station—or its replacement to the north—should remain on Okinawa, while the Prime Minister continues to signal there’s no rush on deciding what to do about the controversial air station.

http://www.japanupdate.com/?id=9897

Comment: With a mayoral election looming in Nago City, where the replacement field is proposed to be built, they’re now resorting to making it look as though Governor Nakaima is waffling on the issue. It’s a political maneuver to make him look weak and nothing could be further from the truth! I agree with Mr. Okada that certain fixed wing operations could be shifted to Kadena and a smaller facility could be built to facilitate helicopter operations at Camp Schwab. Even then, this would be a short term solution and not the one size fits all that he apparently envisions.

I seriously doubt that the citizens who live in and around Kadena Air base could ever be convinced to go along with this plan. Short term in this situation would likely mean several decades! Eventually a larger, more significant, portion of U.S. military forces could be moved out of Okinawa to Guam, the Northern Marianas and even to Iwo Jima. The latter was recently thrown in as a last minute proposal. But even if such a grand long term plan were to be implemented, don’t think that all U.S. military operations will be moved completely out of Okinawa.

For the life of me, I can’t ever see Kadena Air Base closed, at least not in my lifetime, nor can I foresee training facilities like Camp’s Hansen and Schwab closed either. In regards to the latter, they would make excellent joint training facilities for U.S. and Japanese forces as well as a place to preposition material for contingency operations in the Far East theatre. As such, I can’t ever see them being closed down either.

Okada claims air base merger plan was his idea

Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said Thursday that the plan to integrate the functions of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station with U.S. Kadena Air Base was his idea.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20091030TDY01301.htm

Comment: And AlGore invented the internet! I could just have easily said that he stole my idea. I’ve written on this very subject extensively in previous posts. But for me to do so would be a lie, just as it is for Mr. Okada. I don’t know who it was who proposed this idea first but it happened many years ago. Both the U.S. Air Force and the people of Kadena town answered with an emphatic NO! Don’t expect any changes just because of Mr. Okada’s overinflated ego makes him think that because the “good-guys” like him are now in charge that he can win them over on the strength of his personality. What vanity!

Kadena plan a no-go: U.S.

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) The United States said Thursday it can't support the idea of transferring U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa to nearby U.S. Kadena Air Base due to operational difficulties.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/mail/nn20091031a3.html

Comment: The real reason is the Air Force doesn’t like it is because the Marine Corps will steal their girlfriends away from them! Though not ideal, the move could work as a temporary solution till either the Nago replacement facility is built or a suitable replacement facility is found outside of Okinawa. The Marines can’t perform their mission on Okinawa without helicopter capabilities in Okinawa. Guess that means they’re either moving the air base to Nago or the Marines are leaving Okinawa. Who wants to take a bet on which way that will go?

How’s that “Hope and Change” working for you Okinawa? A lot of people here thought that an Obama presidency meant the U.S. military was soon to leave Okinawa altogether. Guess again! Mr. Obama railed against the Bush Administration for a host of different reasons, but once in power, they decided to stick with many of the very policies they so vehemently opposed. More than likely, in addition to all of this talk being just that, talk! This whole thing is just about making noise to appease the locals. My bet is after all the “smoke and mirrors,” a synonym for “Hope and Change” clears, the replacement facility will be built in Nago as planned!

Japan wants a SOFA change; right to keep criminal suspects

Japan and the United States may be gearing up for another bruising battle involving changes to the Status of Forces Agreement, as the new Prime Minister thinks his government should have the right to arbitrarily demand U.S. military personnel suspected of committing crimes in local communities be handed over to Japanese police.

http://www.japanupdate.com/?id=9891

Comment: The argument can be made that this certainly would go a long way in reducing the number of crimes committed by U.S. personnel stationed in Japan. Being non-SOFA myself and as such not afforded its extraterritorial protection, all I can say is abide by the law of the land that you’re in and more than likely you’ll have no trouble what-so-ever. That is especially true in a country like Japan that adheres to the rule of law. Lately it would seem that they adhere to it more than the U.S. does.

Sure there are concerns over questioning methods and protecting the rights of the accused. But that just strengthens my point! Don’t do the crime, if you can’t do the time. If more of these individuals who presently think that the SOFA agreement is a get-out-of-jail-free card had the fear of incarceration and jail time placed in the back of their heads that might deter some of the crime that takes place. Go ahead and put in a few safeguards for the rights of the accused, then turn the criminals over to the Japanese authorities expeditiously and watch the crime rate drop!

Quote of the Day:

“If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.”—Sir Winston Churchill